Bitcoin’s Great Wealth Transfer May Fuel Next Rally, Says CryptoQuant CEO

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s current distribution phase may be less a sign of structural weakness than a major transfer of supply from old market participants to US financial institutions, ETFs and new long-term holders.

In a series of posts on X, Ki argued that selling by Bitcoin OGs and long-time miners is part of a broad “change of hands” rather than evidence that the asset has exhausted its cycle. The key question, in his view, is not only how much supply is being sold, but who is ultimately absorbing it.

“I believe that the selling by Bitcoin OGs and long-time miners is part of a major shift in hands, transferring to US traditional financial institutions, investors, and ETFs,” Ki wrote. “So, I disagree with the claim that Bitcoin won’t do well anymore once the shift is complete and there’s no more liquidity coming in.”

Bitcoin’s Ownership Base Is Changing

Ki’s thesis centers on the composition of Bitcoin holders. He said that, for any asset, the long-term market setup depends heavily on the capital base behind it. If the new owners are institutions capable of attracting larger pools of liquidity over time, he argued, the transition could ultimately support another upward cycle.

“For any asset, what ultimately matters is who holds it,” he wrote. “If the people holding it now are entities that can bring in even greater liquidity going forward, then I think we can look forward to the next rally at any time.” The argument marks a notable framing of the current market. Bitcoin has seen intense sell pressure even as large institutional buyers have continued absorbing supply. Ki described the current distribution phase as “a massive change of hands,” pointing to a market where old holders are distributing while ETFs, Strategy and newer cohorts take the other side.

According to Ki, Bitcoin investors’ average cost basis is around $53,000. Historically, he said, bear markets ended only after price fell below the realized price. He previously thought that level would be difficult to revisit because of institutional inflows and Strategy’s limited selling. But he said recent price action indicates “unusually strong sell pressure.”

The scale of absorption is central to his concern. Since January 2023, Strategy has bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, removing a net 711,174 BTC from circulation, according to Ki. Since March 2024, when Bitcoin was also around $63,000, ETFs have absorbed 509,102 BTC while Strategy bought another 650,706 BTC. Together, that amounts to 1,240,808 BTC absorbed, yet price has returned to the same level.

For context, Ki noted that exchange reserves sit around 2.7 million BTC, while Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to hold around 1 million BTC. In other words, more Bitcoin than Satoshi’s estimated stack, and nearly half of exchange reserves, has been absorbed without producing a sustained price advance.

Short-Term Buyers Are Maturing

Ki also pointed to a major shift inside the realized-cap structure. Bitcoin is at roughly the same price as two years ago, he said, but the holder base looks materially different. The 6-month-to-2-year cohort, representing investors who entered during this cycle, now accounts for 53% of realized cap, up from 15% two years ago.

That matters because, in Ki’s interpretation, short-term holders are gradually becoming long-term holders. He compared the current figure with the previous cycle, when Bitcoin bottomed after the same cohort reached 68% of realized cap. “Short-term holders are evolving into long-term holders,” he wrote.

The setup is not without risk. Ki reposted a separate observation from Julio Moreno stating that overall Bitcoin demand, including speculative and spot demand, is contracting at a monthly pace of 232,000 BTC. Moreno argued that the current correction is tied directly to Bitcoin demand conditions, not to equities, oil or macro indicators, noting that stocks are at all-time highs while manufacturing activity is improving.

Ki’s posts therefore present a split picture. On one side, current demand is contracting and sell pressure remains heavy despite historic institutional absorption. On the other, Bitcoin’s ownership base is migrating toward institutions and maturing newer cohorts that may provide a deeper demand base in the future.

Ki acknowledged that this transition comes with a cultural cost. “Honestly, in terms of rising asset value, I think traditional financial institution investors might provide an even stronger demand base than Bitcoin OGs,” he wrote. “Of course, in that process, some of the cypherpunk values may get diluted. I really regret that part too.”

For markets, the debate now turns on whether Wall Street’s growing share of Bitcoin ownership can offset the supply leaving older holders and miners. Ki’s conclusion remains constructive, but conditional on that transfer becoming a source of future liquidity rather than a ceiling on upside.

“Still, I believe there will definitely be another upward cycle for Bitcoin,” he wrote. “As an investor, I still believe in Bitcoin and think it’s worth waiting a bit longer.”

At press time, BTC traded at $62,696.

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XRP Price Falls To 4-Month Lows—Charts Signal Sell, On-Chain Data Turns Bearish

The XRP price slid on Wednesday to its lowest level in four months, hitting $1.14. The drop has contributed to a broader soft patch across crypto, and both chart analysis and on-chain indicators are now pointing to a more bearish environment for the altcoin. 

XRP Price Slips Below Key Averages

Market expert Sam Daodu, in a fresh breakdown of what’s driving the move, argued that there currently isn’t much for bulls to lean on. One of the most immediate issues is trend structure. 

According to Daodu, the XRP price is currently trading below its key moving averages — specifically the 7, 14, and 30-day averages — indicating that the short-term trend is bearish across multiple timeframes. 

He noted that the weekly exponential moving averages (EMAs) sit higher, clustered between $1.50 and $1.78, which has effectively capped every rebound attempt. That means even when XRP bounces, buyers have struggled to push it out of that upper resistance band.

The outlook also looks difficult when comparing the XRP price to the 200-day moving average, a level that Daodu sees as a dividing line between bullish and bearish regimes. 

The expert placed this key reference price at about $1.64, describing it as a “long climb back” from current trading levels at around $1.17 at the time of writing—underscoring how far the asset would likely need to recover to regain a more constructive trend.

Whale Withdrawals Hit 4-Year Low

On-chain activity adds another layer of concern for the XRP price. Whale withdrawals from Binance—often viewed as a quieter bullish sign because it can indicate large holders moving assets off exchanges to hold long term—have fallen sharply. 

Over the past 30 days, whale withdrawals are down to roughly 978 million XRP, which Daodu described as the lowest reading since 2021, essentially a four-year low. 

In the same period, CryptoQuant data indicates large-holder accumulation has stalled, implying that big holders aren’t adding with conviction during this decline.

With this in mind, Daodu’s bearish setup centers on three key price levels. The first is $1.14, which he frames as the near-term technical target. The second is $1.11, the low from February. 

The third is $1, aligned with the monthly Bollinger floor and treated as a potential endpoint if selling pressure persists. He also emphasized that if macro conditions don’t ease and whales keep showing reluctance to accumulate, these levels could become the next stops.

What The Recovery Depends On

Daodu also suggested that the path forward may hinge on three factors. The first is whether the XRP price can defend the $1.14. If it holds, the bullish case can still play out; if it breaks, he expects the move could extend toward $1.11 and potentially into the $1 area. 

The second factor is the CLARITY Act floor vote. A vote scheduled before the August recess would help clarify the regulatory picture, while no vote could deepen disappointment and add to existing macro pressure. 

The third factor is whale behavior again—specifically, whether whale withdrawals from Binance start climbing back above the current 978 million XRP reading over the past 30 days. Rising withdrawals above that level would indicate renewed accumulation by larger holders.

Even with these bearish indicators, Daodu cautioned that the drop isn’t necessarily rooted in XRP-specific fundamentals. He argued that the XRP price was pulled lower alongside the rest of the market, meaning the next phase likely depends on how those broader market conditions develop. 

Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com 

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Ripple Partner Thunes Unveils Development That Could Strengthen XRP’s Global Payment Narrative

Ripple’s global payments narrative may be gaining fresh momentum as one of its key partners, Thunes, unveils a new development that could further strengthen cross-border settlement infrastructure. As the demand for faster, cheaper, and more efficient international payments continues to rise, strategic partnerships like Thunes play a crucial role in expanding real-world utility across the XRP ecosystem.

Thunes Expands Its Role In The Global Payments Ecosystem

A recent announcement from Thunes could significantly strengthen XRP’s position in the global payments landscape. Analyst XFinanceBull on X has revealed that the company has officially launched real-time payment capabilities in the United States through a direct connection with a Tier 1 financial institution, enabling access to ACH, Same-Day ACH, and all real-time payment rails.

The development comes as Thunes continues to strengthen its international footprint. Thunes holds 50 Money Transmitter Licenses, allowing it to operate across every US state and territory, mirroring Ripple’s regulatory reach. Both companies now independently have institutional-grade access to US clearing systems.

Thunes network already spans 140 countries, supports 90 currencies, and connects to more than 12 billion mobile wallets, stablecoin wallets, and bank account endpoints. Following its expanded partnership with Ripple in September 2025, Thunes integrated blockchain and digital asset technology into its direct global network, leveraging Ripple payments to enhance its SmartX Treasury System.

Meanwhile, Thunes has plugged real-time US settlement into the same network that uses the Ripple blockchain payments infrastructure and XRP as a bridge asset. Over 140 countries can now send money to the US through rails connected to Ripple technology.

Ripple payments have near-global coverage with over 90 payout markets processing more than $70 billion in volume. This integration gives XRP a direct pathway into Tier 1 US banking through a partner that holds licenses in every state.

Institutional Interest Fuels XRP Ledger’s Next Phase Of Growth

The XRP Ledger real-world asset (RWA) ecosystem officially surpassed $3 billion in tokenized value in April. According to an analyst known as BankXRP on X, the incredible insights shared by Luke Judges, Partner Director at RippleX, at Istanbul Blockchain Week, break down exactly where the momentum is heading for real-world asset tokenization. Furthermore, the $3 billion milestone is driven by a highly diversified mix of assets, underscoring Ledger’s expanding institutional utility across multiple segments of finance.

Looking ahead, the next big wave of growth is expected to center around cash and cash-equivalent assets. Money market funds and US Treasury bills, alongside tokenized equities, are being viewed as prime targets for infrastructure disruption. The broader vision is moving toward a globally distributed financial system where regulated assets can trade seamlessly across asset classes through a unified order book.

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Bitcoin Drops Below $66,000 Amid Mounting ETF Outflows, $4B Withdrawn In 12 Days

The market’s leading crypto, Bitcoin (BTC), is coming under fresh pressure as multiple warning signs converge—from heavy selling in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) complex to renewed doubt around Strategy’s long-held “never sell” narrative. 

The result has been a weak session: on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency slipped below the key $66,000 level, extending a selloff that has already erased about $160 billion in overall market value this week, according to Bloomberg.

$2.5M Bitcoin Sale Spooks Market

Earlier in the week, Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold roughly $2.5 million worth of Bitcoin from a large holding currently valued at around $56 billion. Strategy reportedly reduced its hoard by only 32 tokens out of 843,706 coins. 

Even so, analysts say the size of the sale matters less than the message it sends—especially at a time when Bitcoin has been underperforming over the past few weeks.

Rajiv Sawhney, head of international portfolio management at Wave Digital Assets, argued that the financial impact is negligible compared with Strategy’s overall position. He described the sale as “financially trivial,” calling it essentially “a rounding error” relative to a stake worth around $62 billion. 

However, Sawhney emphasized that what matters is market psychology: the idea that the company has long maintained a “never sell” posture had been part of the market’s expectations. 

Bitcoin’s weakness is also taking shape against a very different backdrop in traditional markets. US equities have been moving higher, and tech stocks in particular are making new highs. 

Capital Rotates To AI Stocks

Artificial intelligence (AI) remains the dominant theme drawing capital, and the numbers show the difference clearly. Over the past 12 months, the Nasdaq 100 has been up 42%, while Bitcoin has been down 37% and currently sits 48% below its peak.

Carney Mak, a partner at FXHB Asset Management, said part of the rotation has involved moving capital from Bitcoin and digital assets into AI stocks. In his view, AI offers a more favorable risk-reward setup compared with digital assets, which has encouraged some investors to rebalance their portfolios.

Macro and liquidity conditions are also becoming harder to ignore. Mak noted that crypto currently lacks a strong near-term catalyst, and market performance has increasingly become range-bound. In that environment, he said, results are more dependent on overall liquidity and broader economic factors. 

The Bitcoin ETF market is adding another layer of pressure. Bloomberg data indicates investors have pulled nearly $4 billion from US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds over the past 12 sessions—marking a record streak of consecutive outflows. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $65,721, having recorded a loss of almost 2% on Wednesday, adding to the 12% retracement recorded over the previous seven days, according to CoinGecko data. 

Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com 

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‘Coldest Crypto Winter Ever’: Bloomberg’s Weisenthal Lists 12 Reasons

Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal has revived and expanded his argument that crypto is stuck in what he calls the “coldest crypto winter ever,” pointing to a 12-part case that goes beyond price action and into market psychology, capital rotation, regulation, AI and quantum computing.

Writing in his Odd Lots newsletter and sharing the piece on X, Weisenthal said he had previously laid out 10 reasons in February for why the current downturn felt unusually punishing. “Well everything I cited then still holds,” he wrote, adding that two more factors have since made the backdrop look even worse.

Crypto’s Problem Is No Longer Just Crypto

The core of Weisenthal’s argument is that crypto’s weakness is taking place at a time when other speculative corners of the market are doing exceptionally well. That contrast matters. A bear market is one thing when risk assets are broadly under pressure; it is another when investors are watching adjacent trades explode higher.

One chart cited in the newsletter showed the Goldman Sachs non-profitable tech basket climbing sharply again, with Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, noting that the basket is “mooning again” in a way that resembles the 2021 boom. Another chart highlighted the Goldman Sachs US quantum computing basket, which has also moved materially higher after a dramatic rally.

For Weisenthal, that makes crypto’s malaise more painful. “First, other people are making SO MUCH MONEY,” he wrote, pointing to listed Nasdaq names and other equities that have surged in recent months. He specifically cited SK Hynix as up more than 250% year to date and Micron as up more than 260%, arguing that such gains intensify the feeling that crypto participants are missing the market’s main action.

He framed the mood with a reference to a famous New York Times headline: “Everyone Is Getting Hilariously Rich and You’re Not.”

The Original 10-Point Case

Weisenthal’s February argument, as summarized in the newsletter, was that the drawdown is occurring during rising anxiety about the dollar, removing one of crypto’s traditional macro narratives. He also argued that crypto can no longer plausibly rely on the idea that it is “so early,” while “crypto twitter is dead” and institutional adoption has already happened, reducing the expectation of a future adoption wave.

The regulatory backdrop, in his view, is also no longer an obvious future tailwind. He wrote that the environment is already “about as favorable as it gets,” implying that market participants may have less room to price in a major policy-driven reprieve.

Another factor is competition for attention and resources from artificial intelligence. Weisenthal said the AI boom is crowding out access to electricity, which matters directly for miners, while also taking “all the mental market share.” In his framing, crypto no longer looks like the obvious frontier trade for technology-minded investors.

The list also included darker reputational and structural concerns. Weisenthal wrote that crypto is “Epstein-adjacent,” citing its appearance in the Epstein files, and pointed to growing anxiety over quantum computing and its potential implications for Bitcoin’s security model.

He also singled out digital asset treasury companies, including Strategy, arguing that firms which had previously accumulated Bitcoin are now becoming sellers rather than buyers. He noted that Strategy had said it sold 32 bitcoins, a symbolic reversal for a company long associated with corporate Bitcoin accumulation.

FOMO Without Crypto

The two new points deepen the same theme: crypto is not merely down; it is being left out. Weisenthal wrote that, a month earlier, he might have said individual stocks were simply running hard without a broader speculative mania. Now, he said, the market is looking “more and more like some real FOMO everything rally.”

That is the sharper claim. If AI, quantum computing and speculative tech are rallying while crypto remains frozen, then crypto’s problem is not just liquidity, regulation or price momentum. It is relevance. For a sector built partly on being the highest-beta expression of technological change and monetary skepticism, losing the attention trade may be the most uncomfortable winter signal of all.

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.3 trillion.

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Ethereum’s Multi-Year Support Test Could Shape Its Next Big Move

Ethereum is currently trading at a pivotal zone where long-term support and emerging bullish momentum are converging. With buyers attempting to defend a key multi-year trendline, the coming sessions could prove decisive for the asset’s broader outlook. A successful hold may set the stage for a powerful breakout, while failure could delay Ethereum’s next major rally.

Ethereum Tests Critical Multi-Year Trendline Support

After losing the $2,000 price mark, Ethereum continues to trend downward. However, recent analysis from World of Charts highlights that Ethereum has reached a critical technical juncture, currently testing a vital multi-year ascending trendline. The fact that this support zone is holding so far is a positive development, marking it as the most important area to monitor throughout the coming weeks.

For a shift in momentum to occur, the asset needs to maintain this base while simultaneously overcoming the descending trendline overhead. Successfully reclaiming this overhead resistance would represent a major technical victory, potentially triggering a strong bullish wave and initiating a significant upward move.

Despite the favorable setup, confirmation remains essential before projecting a larger rally. The stability of this support zone is the primary prerequisite for growth; if buyers continue to defend this level and a clean breakout is realized, Ethereum could be positioned for a substantial long-term bullish rally with significantly higher targets ahead.

While patience remains the best strategy, the developing structure is becoming increasingly compelling for long-term investors and active traders alike. Closely monitoring these specific technical boundaries will be vital in identifying exactly when the market is ready to transition into its next expansion phase.

Reclaims The 4H 200 MA And EMA After Months Of Weakness

Speaking in a recent post, crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that Ethereum has achieved an important technical milestone by breaking above its 4-hour 200 MA and 200 EMA for the first time since losing those levels in April. The move suggests that short-term momentum may be shifting back in favor of the bulls after months of weakness.

The analyst also pointed to Ethereum’s resilience against Bitcoin in recent sessions, noting that the asset has continued to show strength on lower timeframes. This relative outperformance has helped fuel optimism that ETH could be building a stronger recovery structure.

According to Daan Crypto Trades, the breakout is worth monitoring closely. If Ethereum can maintain its position above these key moving averages, it could provide a boost to ETH-related sectors, particularly DeFi tokens and other ecosystem assets, especially if Bitcoin dominance continues to decline and capital begins rotating into alternative cryptocurrencies.

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The Rapid XRP Growth Trajectory That Investors Should Be Aware Of

The numbers from the XRP Ledger’s real-world asset dashboard tell a story of rapid growth that the price movement has not fully priced in. The latest attention comes from the ledger’s expansion from about $900 million in tokenized assets at the start of the year to almost $4 billion within five months. 

This growth is notable because it is happening before the US has delivered a permanent federal market structure for cryptocurrencies and before the full institutional channel into tokenization on the XRP Ledger has opened.

XRP Ledger’s RWA Growth Is No Longer A Small Experiment

According to data from RWA.xyz, the total represented asset value on the XRP Ledger has grown by 13.79% in the past 30 days, now at $3.68 billion at the time of writing. This growth is especially notable because it is coming at a lull period for the XRP price, meaning the price action is not yet pricing in the growth.

Taking to the social media platform X, XRP commentator X Finance Bull pointed to the XRP Ledger’s growth from about $900 million in tokenized assets at the start of the year to around $4 billion within five months. “Tell me another blockchain that attracted $3.1 billion in new tokenized assets in just five months,” he said. 

X Finance Bull’s post highlighted several additions behind this growth of the XRP Ledger, including Justoken’s reported $2.2 billion in tokenized energy assets, Ondo’s tokenized government securities, VERT Capital’s contribution, Guggenheim’s Treasury-linked products, and Societe Generale’s stablecoin activity.

These companies have evaluated different blockchain networks and each one arrived at XRP Ledger independently. For example, Justoken’s JMWH tokenized electricity product is credited for bringing about $2.2 billion in tokenized electricity to XRPL, with the token tied to electricity contracts from Latin American producers.

Regulation Could Decide How Fast The Growth Develops

Tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger have grown by 344% since the beginning of the year. According to data from RWA.xyz, among the 14 networks with tokenized assets above $200 million, the XRP Ledger is growing more than twice as fast as Ethereum, which itself is growing at around 35%. 

All of this growth is taking place before the United States has enacted the anticipated CLARITY Act, which supporters have noted will bode well for the XRP ecosystem. The outlook now is how fast this growth will continue, with some analysts arguing that the passage of the CLARITY Act could lead to trillions of inflows into the XRP ecosystem.

While the US regulatory process works through its final stages, the XRP Ledger is also growing on a global scale. Japan’s SBI Holdings runs 26 banking partnerships on XRP infrastructure, while Rakuten Pay has opened XRP access to 44 million users. Ripple also holds regulatory approval in Dubai’s financial center, and Singapore has also recognized XRP as a payment token.

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