Bitcoin Bottom Prediction: Top Analyst Says It’s Close—What Price Comes Next?

Monday’s Bitcoin (BTC) rebound—pushing back above the $63,00 area—has revived a major question: was last Friday’s drop to $59,000 the bottom for BTC? 

Seeking to answer that, market analyst Ali Martinez released a new technical note on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that Bitcoin appears poised to reach a market bottom while a “major macro accumulation cycle” begins to form.

Why The Sell-off Could Signal A Bottom

In Martinez’s view, BTC’s decline to its lowest level since 2024 served as an important cleansing function for the market—effectively shaking out “overleveraged premiums” across the board. 

That type of flush, Martinez argues, is often what makes bottoms possible: it removes leverage stress and forces late and speculative positions to unwind.

A central part of his explanation is the role of long-term holders. Martinez claims that long-term investors distributed more than $3.25 billion worth of spot Bitcoin during the downswing. 

He says this distributed supply temporarily raised exchange reserves, which can translate into increased potential selling pressure as coins move closer to trading venues. 

Supporting that point, Martinez also cites data indicating that over 54,000 BTC have moved onto trading platforms over the past two weeks, which he frames as a further contributor to the selling dynamic.

Next Bitcoin Targets

Even with Monday’s recovery, Martinez emphasizes what happened at the downside. He points out that following the move down to $59,000, more than 10.46 million BTC are currently held at a loss. 

In his technical framework, that’s a key threshold to watch. Martinez notes that historically, when the “supply-in-loss” metric crosses the extreme 10 million BTC level, it has helped time macro bottoms with notable accuracy.

From there, Martinez turns to the MVRV Pricing Bands, which he describes as offering “geometric targets” for where Bitcoin accumulation windows tend to mature. 

According to his post, the most reliable accumulation periods historically occur when Bitcoin settles within the 1.0 to 0.8 MVRV bands. Martinez says those bands align with two specific target areas: approximately $53,900 and $43,150. 

In other words, if the bottom is indeed approaching or forming now, he suggests the market may gravitate toward those zones as the next stages in a broader consolidation-and-accumulation process.

Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com 

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XRP’s Face-Melting Phase: The Numbers Say Price Is Headed Above $10

XRP’s price action has come under heavy pressure in recent days alongside the rest of the market, falling back into a major support region around $1.10 with sellers still controlling short-term momentum. 

The decline has placed XRP directly inside a notable zone on the monthly candlestick long-term chart. Particularly, technical analysis done by crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO indicates that XRP may still face one more liquidity sweep before a much larger move above $10.

XRP In Face-Melting Phase

EGRAG’s analysis is based on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart depicting XRP’s behavior around the 50-month and 100-month exponential moving averages. According to the analyst, XRP has shown a recurring pattern on higher time frames whenever it loses the 50 EMA decisively. The breakdown is usually followed by weak momentum, emotional selling, and a final liquidity sweep into the 100 EMA before the next rally kicks off again.

That model is important because XRP’s current monthly candle has already opened the current weekly candlestick below the 50 EMA, placing the price action in a fragile position. This positions XRP in a face-melting phase where it has a possibility of falling to the 100 EMA, while the market continues searching for its true macro bottom. The analyst’s projected path leaves room for more downside first, with the chart pointing to a possible crash below $1.

However, one of the more counterintuitive dimensions of EGRAG CRYPTO’s analysis is what he does while anticipating further downside. Rather than waiting for a confirmed reversal, the analyst is actively building a position across a range of entry prices at $1.09, $0.92, $0.85, and even $0.70, treating each level as a probability zone.

The Numbers Say XRP Is Headed Above $10

Another interesting part of the analysis is not the possible move lower, but the upside numbers that follow it. EGRAG’s chart shows a major recovery path out of the current support range and into a break above the current cycle high at $3.65. The projections show upside levels highlighted at $9, $13, $17, $20, and $27. 

EGRAG’s point is that the exact bottom may matter less if XRP eventually reaches these projected bullish targets. Risk management matters more than catching the exact bottom, and his example compares entries at $1.09, $0.92, $0.85, or $0.70 with upside targets at $7, $8, $13, and mid-double-digit prices. Entering at those low prices will not matter when XRP reaches those high targets.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.14, down by 12% in the past seven days. A move from the current $1.14 price to $10 would require a rally of about 777%. A climb to $13 would represent a gain of more than 1,040%. Lastly, a rally to the $27 level on the chart would require XRP to rise by more than 2,260% from the current range.

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Ripple Partner Bank of America Unveils Global Payments Expansion Strategy

Bank of America is expanding its global payments strategy with a renewed focus on enhancing cross-border transaction capabilities, highlighting the growing importance of efficient international money movement in modern finance. Being one of the world’s largest financial institutions and a company frequently associated with discussions surrounding Ripple and payment innovation, Bank of America’s latest initiative underscores the continued evolution of global settlement infrastructure.

Ripple Gains Institutional Momentum Through Major Banking Alliance

Ripple partner Bank of America is preparing to launch a new cross-border payments service that incorporates SWIFT. An analyst known as SMQKE on X noted that rather than replacing legacy systems outright, banks are increasingly adopting hybrid payment models that use both Ripple and SWIFT for global transactions. This dual-framework approach is practical for banks because RippleNet can integrate into existing banking infrastructure just like a traditional payment system.

SMQKE argues that this Ripple’s partnership with Bank of America can create a pathway for XRP to access the bank’s extensive global payment network. As a result of that move, banks can maintain SWIFT connectivity for global reach while leveraging XRP through RippleNet as a source of on-demand liquidity.

However, Bank of America’s new cross-border real-time payment service in this hybrid model will further strengthen the foundation for XRP integration into the bank’s core payment infrastructure.

Institutional Compliance Remains A Key Advantage For XRP Ledger

The claim that XRP is unstable for tokenization is technically unfounded. Crypto analyst CharuSan has pointed out that with its institutional-grade compliance features, built-in security architecture, and deep liquidity capabilities, the XRP Ledger stands out as one of the most suitable and secure networks for tokenization in the current market.

Unlike the Ethereum network, where external smart contract codes, such as ERC-20, must be written to tokenize an asset. In XRPL, the tokenization process is embedded directly into the core code of the network’s Native Issued Assets. This eliminates the need to custom smart contract code, which is often a major source of vulnerabilities, exploits, and cyberattacks.

According to CharuSan, by embedding tokenization at the protocol level, XRPL enables real-world assets like real estate, stocks, and bonds to be issued and transferred securely within seconds, without exposing institutions to smart contract risk.

Additionally, regulatory compliance remains a critical requirement for institutional adoption. Wall Street and institutional banks must enforce strict Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations standards, including control over who can hold tokenized assets. XRPL addresses this natively by allowing issuers to restrict access and freeze suspicious accounts when necessary, to ensure that only authorized participants can receive this token at the protocol level.

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Bitcoin Recovery Needs This To Happen, Glassnode Analyst Reveals

The lead research analyst at Glassnode has highlighted how the Bitcoin supply clustered at the top levels might have to shift down before a sustained recovery can take shape.

Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Shows Massive Supply Above $80,000

In a new post on X, Glassnode lead research analyst CryptoVizArt has discussed how the Bitcoin supply is looking from the perspective of the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). The CBD is an on-chain indicator that tells us about the amount of BTC that was purchased at each of the levels that the cryptocurrency has visited during its history. Below is the chart for the metric shared by CryptoVizArt.

As is visible in the graph, there is a decent amount of Bitcoin supply that was purchased at recent price levels. This supply cluster has built up as the asset has consolidated in the region since February.

While this cluster isn’t small, it’s still less dense than some other zones. From the chart, it’s apparent that there are regions above $80,000 that host the break-even level of an extreme amount of supply approaching the 495,000 BTC mark.

These zones extend up to the top levels from the 2025 bull market. Earlier, the levels near $126,000 used to be even more dense, but as the digital asset sector has gone through this downturn, supply has changed hands at lower levels, weakening these clusters. However, the zones continue to be dominant relative to the clusters below $80,000.

“The Cost Basis Distribution heatmap shows a dense supply cluster in the $80k–$126k range, representing coins still held by buyers near cycle highs,” noted the analyst. Naturally, all of these holders are in a notable amount of unrealized loss right now.

Generally, underwater investors act as an impediment to price surges as they sell near their break-even. This effect could in part be what capped out the recovery rally in May. CryptoVizArt explained:

For a sustained recovery to take shape, this supply needs to gradually migrate into new buyers’ hands at lower cost basis levels. As that wall softens, the overhang pressure eases and demand has room to build conviction.

In the past, the process has often taken some time to occur for Bitcoin. “This transition can be achieved through deeper correction and/or bear market continuation,” said the Glassnode researcher.

It now remains to be seen how the CBD will develop for Bitcoin in the near future, particularly in terms of whether the top buyers finally capitulate to new investors.

BTC Price

Bitcoin plummeted to $59,000 last week, but the asset opened on Monday with some recovery as its price is now floating around $63,200.

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Bitcoin Price Fights Back—Is The Worst Finally Over?

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $62,000 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $64,500 resistance zone.

• Bitcoin managed to form a base above $60,000 and started a recovery wave.
• The price is trading above $62,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $61,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $64,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Gains

Bitcoin price remained supported above the $60,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $61,200 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $62,000 and $62,200 levels.

Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $61,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The bulls were able to push the price above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $74,100 swing high to the $59,107 low.

However, the bears are active near $64,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $62,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $62,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $64,500 level.

The first key resistance is near the $65,000 level. A close above the $65,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $66,500 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $74,100 swing high to the $59,107 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $68,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,000.

Another Decline In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $64,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $62,800 level.

The first major support is near the $62,500 level. The next support is now near the $62,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $61,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $61,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $62,500, followed by $62,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $64,500 and $66,500.

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Bitcoin Supply In Loss Crosses Critical Threshold — Bullish Reversal Next?

After days of steep downward movement, the price of Bitcoin appears to have found a somewhat reliable anchor around the $60,000 region. However, recent on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might not be down for long, with a bullish reversal seemingly on the cards.

Is BTC Price Bottom Already Forming?

In a June 7th post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the price of Bitcoin might have just reached a major bottom in this cycle. This evaluation is based on changes in the Bitcoin Supply In Loss metric, which measures the amount of BTC in circulation that was last moved at a price above the current market value.

This on-chain metric provides insight into how much pressure investors are under (or how deeply underwater they are) as they hold their Bitcoin at an unrealized loss. Hence, the Supply In Loss indicator, near unprecedented levels, is a signal of systemic fear and an impending shift in Bitcoin market dynamics.

Martinez noted that the flagship cryptocurrency formed major cycle bottoms in the past when more than 10 million BTC were held at a loss. According to Glassnode data highlighted by the analyst, Bitcoin has breached this threshold, with 10.46 million coins (more than half of the circulating supply) underwater.

As observed in the chart above, the Bitcoin price saw a bullish reversal in late 2018, as the supply in loss crossed this 10 million threshold. A similar pattern could be seen for BTC’s price when its Supply In Loss climbed to this mark around 2022.

Martinez explained:

I believe this is an important signal because selling pressure often begins to fade as fewer investors are willing to realize losses, increasing the probability of a market bottom forming.

Based strictly on historical context and patterns, there is a high likelihood that a price bottom is forming for BTC at current levels. However, an important factor to discount is that the Bitcoin circulating supply was markedly lower in both periods (around 17.4 million and 19.2 million towards the end of 2018 and 2022, respectively).

Lower circulating supply could mean the Supply In Loss might edge slightly higher this time, suggesting the BTC price could see further downside. This was evident in 2015 (when the circulating supply was much lower), when the Supply In Loss didn’t reach the 10 million threshold before a bullish reversal.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $62,746, reflecting a 2.5% jump in the past 24 hours.

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Ethereum’s RSI Just Hit Its Lowest Level In History, And That May Be Exactly The Point

Ethereum’s latest price crash has pushed the cryptocurrency below $1,800, placing its monthly chart under pressure at a time when the entire crypto market sentiment has turned heavily bearish. There is also another weakness coming from the monthly RSI, which has now dropped to its lowest level since the asset launched in 2015.

That reading has made the current setup very important, as previous deep RSI resets appeared near major Ethereum cycle lows in 2020 and 2022, and there’s also a question of whether the same pattern is forming again.

RSI Hits Its Lowest Level Since Ethereum’s Launch

Ethereum has endured a brutal nine months since it peaked at $4,946 in August 2025. The brutal price action has culminated in a break below $1,800 in June, with the leading altcoin falling to as low as $1,536 in the past 24 hours, which is its lowest price level so far in 2026.

Interestingly, that crash has caused the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) on ETH/USD to print its lowest reading since Ethereum’s launch in 2015. The monthly RSI indicator chart shows the index dropping to around 40, its lowest level on the monthly timeframe since ETH began trading in 2015.

Ethereum Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X

What Does This Mean For Ethereum?

Back in 2020, Ethereum’s RSI reached a depressed level before ETH began a massive rally from around $88 to its 2021 peak above $4,800. Again in 2022, another deep RSI reset came before ETH eventually rallied from around $880 to its 2025 all-time high.

The current setup is not a guarantee that these same rallies will repeat, but it does show that Ethereum is now in the type of momentum zone that has always appeared closer to major bottoms than cycle tops. 

A notable difference this time is that the RSI has gone even lower, making the 2026 reading the most extreme in the cryptocurrency’s history. If history repeats itself, the ensuing rally might be even larger than those seen in the previous cycles.

Technical analysis of the monthly candlestick timeframe presents Ethereum as moving through another four-year cycle, similar to the move from the 2017 top to the 2021 top. As shown in the chart image above, the 2017 cycle peak is the first major top, the 2021 peak is the next major cycle high, and then there is a projection of a possible top around $10,000 sometime in 2026-2027.

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,612, leaving bulls with the immediate task of defending the $1,600 region with stronger inflows. Speaking of inflows, Spot Ethereum ETFs ended a 17-day streak of outflows on Thursday, June 4, after recording $19 million in net inflows. However, that relief was short-lived, as Friday’s session returned to negative territory with $5.97 million in net outflows.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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